The Impact of China-US Trade Fight and Huawei and ZTE Bans on the Global Communications Equipment Supply Chain
To keep his campaign promise, Trump signed an executive memorandum to impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the United States in March 2018, involving large amounts and plenty of goods. In the first two rounds of tariffs, the US has imposed duties on a total of US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods, including semiconductor ICs, car parts, machinery, and equipment, including servers. And smartphones are likely to be on the list. The U.S. Department of Commerce imposed a denial order against ZTE on April 16, 2018, banning American businesses or individuals from selling high-tech components and technologies to the Chinese telecom equipment maker. Despite the ban has been expanded to Huawei, the G20 Summit seems to help ratchet down the trade fight between the US and China. This report provides a description of how this all began, a whole picture of these bans and tariffs, and how these have affected the global IT industry, especially in the communications sector; looks at some of the possible consequences if the fight continues.
1. PREFACE
1.1 Background
1.2 Scope of Impact
1.1.1 IT and Telecom Industries
1.1.2 Brands and OEM/ODMs Export Goods from China to the United States
2. TAIWANESE COMMUNICATIONS PRODUCTS MANUFACTURERED IN CHINA
2.1 Smartphone Industry
2.2.1 Production Value
2.2.2 Major Clients
2.3 Wireless Broadband Equipment Industry
2.3.1 Production Value
2.3.2 Major Clients
2.4 Fixed Broadband Equipment Industry
2.4.1 Production Value
2.4.2 Major Clients
3. THE POSSIBLE IMPACT ON THE INDUSTRY
3.1 Smartphone Industry
3.1.1 Export Value
3.1.2 Stakeholder Analysis
3.2 Wireless Broadband Equipment Industry
3.2.1 Export Value
3.2.2 Stakeholder Analysis
3.3 Fixed Broadband Equipment Industry
3.3.1 Export Value
3.3.2 Stakeholder Analysis
4. MIC PERSPECTIVE
5. PREFACE
6. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ZTE SUPPLY CHAIN
6.1 Application Processor and Wireless Communication Chip
6.1.1 The Current Market
6.1.2 Possible Places to Transfer the Orders
6.2 Radio Frequency Component
6.2.1 The Current Market
6.2.2 Possible Places to Transfer the Orders
6.3 Operating System
6.3.1 The Current Market
6.3.2 Possible Places to Transfer the Orders
7. IMPLICATIONS FOR ZTE'S 5G AMBITIONS
7.1 The Denial Order Seeks to Stifle ZTE's Development Momentum by Barring the Use of American Software and Hardware
7.1.1 The Incapability to Conduct Independent R&D for Core Chips and Components Has Become a Major Issue
7.1.2 The U.S. is Determined to Cripple China's 5G Development, and the Shots are Being Fired at ZTE
8. MIC PERSPECTIVE
9. PREFACE
9.1 iPhone Likely to Become a Bargaining Chip in US-China Trade War
10. IMPACT ANALYSIS
10.1 iPhone Accounts for over 42% of the Smartphone Imports in the United States
10.2 Impact on Supply Chain
11. COUNTERMEASURES
11.1Short-term Strategy: Adjust Existing Capacity to Increase Production in Taiwan
11.2 Mid-to Long-Term Strategy: Increase Production Share in South/Southeast Asia
12. MIC PERSPECTIVE
13. PREFACE
13.1 Conflict Intensifies as Neither Side Willing to Make Concessions
14. DEVELOPMENT OF US AND CHINESE SERVER INDUSTRIES
14.1 US Dominance Challenged by China
14.2 China's Spy Chip Incidents Ignites Network Security Concerns Worldwide
15. IMPACT ON TAIWAN'S SERVER INDUSTRY
15.1 Less Impact on Taiwanese Server Industry Chain
15.2 Greater Impact on Server Industry from Network Security Concerns; Some Vendors Move Production Lines out of China
16. MIC PERSPECTIVE
16.1 US-China Relations Remain Tense in Near Future
16.2 Limited Impact on Server Industry
16.3 Chinese Spy Chip Scandal Speeds up Moving Production Lines outside China
17. HUAWEI NETWORK EQUIPMENT BANNED BY SEVERAL COUNTRIES AND TELECOMS
18. MAIN REASONS BEHIND LACK OF TRUST IN CHINESE ENTERPRISES
18.1 Huawei's Global Expansion Backed by Government
18.2 Chinese Enterprises' Difficulty in Maintaining Independence under China's Legal System
18.2.1 Chinese Government's Increased Control over Chinese Enterprises
18.2.2 Chinese Government's Legitimate Rights to Conduct Intelligence through Enterprises
19. HUAWEI DEFENDS EQUIPMENT SECURITY
19.1 Huawei Asserts Ability to Manage its Security and Keep Independence from the Government
19.2 Huawei Proposes Security Improvement Measurements to Win Trust of Western Countries
20. MOST ENTERPRISE CUSTOMERS STILL HOLD ON TO HUAWEI EQUIPMENT
20.1 Huawei's Biggest Loss in the Asia Pacific is the Loss of Market Share in Japan
20.2 Huawei's Market Share in Europe Remains Unaffected Except BT
20.2.1 Other European Operators Still Cooperate with Huawei
20.2.2 Germany Government Has Security Concerns about Huawei's Technology but Not Telecom Operators
20.2.3 Huawei's 5G Product Advantages Make it Difficult for Telecom Operators to Give Up Easily
21. POLITICAL RISKS THAT HUAWEI MAY HAVE TO ENCOUNTER IN THE FUTURE
21.1 Huawei Continues to Face Political Risks in the Future
21.2 Governments and Operators of All Countries Have High Possibility of Expanding the Blockade
21.3 ZTE Should Be Worried About the US Government Bans on All China-made Products
22. MIC PERSPECTIVE
22.1 The Impact on Huawei's Brand Image is Greater than on Its Revenues
23. G20 SUMMIT
23.1 G2's Announcements in G20 Summit
23.2 US Tech Companies Sidestep Trump's Huawei Ban
24. SHORT-, MEDIUM-, AND LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
24.1 Short-term Development: Situation Seems to Get Better
24.2 Medium-term Development: To Strengthen Ties with Non-US Suppliers
24.3 Long-term Development: To Construct Homegrown Industry Chain
25. IMPACT ON THE INDUSTRY
26. MIC PERSPECTIVE
26.1 Seek Opportunities Stemming from US Companies
26.2 Help China Bridge the Gap in the Industry Supply Chain
26.3 Diversify Supply Chain to Reduce Risks
APPENDIX
Glossary of Terms
LIST OF COMPANIES
Airoha Technology
Alcatel
Alibaba
Altice
Amazon
Apple
ARM
ASE
AT&T
AutoNavi
Baidu
Beijing Changjiu Logistics
Beijing Hyundai
Best Buy
Bloomberg
BMW
Bouygues Telecom
British Telecom
Broadcom
BT
Catcher Technology
CNBC. Coke Cola
Compeq
Delta
Der Spiegel
Deutsche Telekom
Flexium Interconnect
Foxconn
Futurewei Technologies
Genius Electronic Optical
GIS
HiSilicon
HPE
HTC
Huawei. IBM. Infineon
Inspur
Inventec
KDDI
KINSUS
KT
KY
KYEC
Largan Precision
Lenovo
LG
Maxscend Microelectronics
MediaTek
Merry
Mitac
Motorola
Murata
NTT
NTT Docomo
OPPO
Optus
Orange
Panasonic
Pegatron
Play
Qorvo
Qualcomm
Quanta
Reuters
Samsung
Simplo
Sina
SKT
SkyCom
Skyworks
SoftBank
Sony
Spark
SPIL
Stiftung Neue Verantwortung
Sugon
Taiyo Yuden
TCL
TDK
TDK EPCOS
Telefonia Dialog
Telef?nica Deutschland
Telef?nica O2
Tencent
Three
TI
TIM
Tizen
TPK
Tsinghua Unigroup
TSMC
Unigroup Spreadtrum RDA
United States Census Bureau
Verizon
VIVO
Vodafone
Vodafone Hutchison Australia
Walsin Technology
WIN Semiconductors
Wingtech
Winnebago
Wistron
Xiaomi
Zhen Ding
ZTE
1.1 Background
1.2 Scope of Impact
1.1.1 IT and Telecom Industries
1.1.2 Brands and OEM/ODMs Export Goods from China to the United States
2. TAIWANESE COMMUNICATIONS PRODUCTS MANUFACTURERED IN CHINA
2.1 Smartphone Industry
2.2.1 Production Value
2.2.2 Major Clients
2.3 Wireless Broadband Equipment Industry
2.3.1 Production Value
2.3.2 Major Clients
2.4 Fixed Broadband Equipment Industry
2.4.1 Production Value
2.4.2 Major Clients
3. THE POSSIBLE IMPACT ON THE INDUSTRY
3.1 Smartphone Industry
3.1.1 Export Value
3.1.2 Stakeholder Analysis
3.2 Wireless Broadband Equipment Industry
3.2.1 Export Value
3.2.2 Stakeholder Analysis
3.3 Fixed Broadband Equipment Industry
3.3.1 Export Value
3.3.2 Stakeholder Analysis
4. MIC PERSPECTIVE
5. PREFACE
6. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ZTE SUPPLY CHAIN
6.1 Application Processor and Wireless Communication Chip
6.1.1 The Current Market
6.1.2 Possible Places to Transfer the Orders
6.2 Radio Frequency Component
6.2.1 The Current Market
6.2.2 Possible Places to Transfer the Orders
6.3 Operating System
6.3.1 The Current Market
6.3.2 Possible Places to Transfer the Orders
7. IMPLICATIONS FOR ZTE'S 5G AMBITIONS
7.1 The Denial Order Seeks to Stifle ZTE's Development Momentum by Barring the Use of American Software and Hardware
7.1.1 The Incapability to Conduct Independent R&D for Core Chips and Components Has Become a Major Issue
7.1.2 The U.S. is Determined to Cripple China's 5G Development, and the Shots are Being Fired at ZTE
8. MIC PERSPECTIVE
9. PREFACE
9.1 iPhone Likely to Become a Bargaining Chip in US-China Trade War
10. IMPACT ANALYSIS
10.1 iPhone Accounts for over 42% of the Smartphone Imports in the United States
10.2 Impact on Supply Chain
11. COUNTERMEASURES
11.1Short-term Strategy: Adjust Existing Capacity to Increase Production in Taiwan
11.2 Mid-to Long-Term Strategy: Increase Production Share in South/Southeast Asia
12. MIC PERSPECTIVE
13. PREFACE
13.1 Conflict Intensifies as Neither Side Willing to Make Concessions
14. DEVELOPMENT OF US AND CHINESE SERVER INDUSTRIES
14.1 US Dominance Challenged by China
14.2 China's Spy Chip Incidents Ignites Network Security Concerns Worldwide
15. IMPACT ON TAIWAN'S SERVER INDUSTRY
15.1 Less Impact on Taiwanese Server Industry Chain
15.2 Greater Impact on Server Industry from Network Security Concerns; Some Vendors Move Production Lines out of China
16. MIC PERSPECTIVE
16.1 US-China Relations Remain Tense in Near Future
16.2 Limited Impact on Server Industry
16.3 Chinese Spy Chip Scandal Speeds up Moving Production Lines outside China
17. HUAWEI NETWORK EQUIPMENT BANNED BY SEVERAL COUNTRIES AND TELECOMS
18. MAIN REASONS BEHIND LACK OF TRUST IN CHINESE ENTERPRISES
18.1 Huawei's Global Expansion Backed by Government
18.2 Chinese Enterprises' Difficulty in Maintaining Independence under China's Legal System
18.2.1 Chinese Government's Increased Control over Chinese Enterprises
18.2.2 Chinese Government's Legitimate Rights to Conduct Intelligence through Enterprises
19. HUAWEI DEFENDS EQUIPMENT SECURITY
19.1 Huawei Asserts Ability to Manage its Security and Keep Independence from the Government
19.2 Huawei Proposes Security Improvement Measurements to Win Trust of Western Countries
20. MOST ENTERPRISE CUSTOMERS STILL HOLD ON TO HUAWEI EQUIPMENT
20.1 Huawei's Biggest Loss in the Asia Pacific is the Loss of Market Share in Japan
20.2 Huawei's Market Share in Europe Remains Unaffected Except BT
20.2.1 Other European Operators Still Cooperate with Huawei
20.2.2 Germany Government Has Security Concerns about Huawei's Technology but Not Telecom Operators
20.2.3 Huawei's 5G Product Advantages Make it Difficult for Telecom Operators to Give Up Easily
21. POLITICAL RISKS THAT HUAWEI MAY HAVE TO ENCOUNTER IN THE FUTURE
21.1 Huawei Continues to Face Political Risks in the Future
21.2 Governments and Operators of All Countries Have High Possibility of Expanding the Blockade
21.3 ZTE Should Be Worried About the US Government Bans on All China-made Products
22. MIC PERSPECTIVE
22.1 The Impact on Huawei's Brand Image is Greater than on Its Revenues
23. G20 SUMMIT
23.1 G2's Announcements in G20 Summit
23.2 US Tech Companies Sidestep Trump's Huawei Ban
24. SHORT-, MEDIUM-, AND LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
24.1 Short-term Development: Situation Seems to Get Better
24.2 Medium-term Development: To Strengthen Ties with Non-US Suppliers
24.3 Long-term Development: To Construct Homegrown Industry Chain
25. IMPACT ON THE INDUSTRY
26. MIC PERSPECTIVE
26.1 Seek Opportunities Stemming from US Companies
26.2 Help China Bridge the Gap in the Industry Supply Chain
26.3 Diversify Supply Chain to Reduce Risks
APPENDIX
Glossary of Terms
LIST OF COMPANIES
Airoha Technology
Alcatel
Alibaba
Altice
Amazon
Apple
ARM
ASE
AT&T
AutoNavi
Baidu
Beijing Changjiu Logistics
Beijing Hyundai
Best Buy
Bloomberg
BMW
Bouygues Telecom
British Telecom
Broadcom
BT
Catcher Technology
CNBC. Coke Cola
Compeq
Delta
Der Spiegel
Deutsche Telekom
Flexium Interconnect
Foxconn
Futurewei Technologies
Genius Electronic Optical
GIS
HiSilicon
HPE
HTC
Huawei. IBM. Infineon
Inspur
Inventec
KDDI
KINSUS
KT
KY
KYEC
Largan Precision
Lenovo
LG
Maxscend Microelectronics
MediaTek
Merry
Mitac
Motorola
Murata
NTT
NTT Docomo
OPPO
Optus
Orange
Panasonic
Pegatron
Play
Qorvo
Qualcomm
Quanta
Reuters
Samsung
Simplo
Sina
SKT
SkyCom
Skyworks
SoftBank
Sony
Spark
SPIL
Stiftung Neue Verantwortung
Sugon
Taiyo Yuden
TCL
TDK
TDK EPCOS
Telefonia Dialog
Telef?nica Deutschland
Telef?nica O2
Tencent
Three
TI
TIM
Tizen
TPK
Tsinghua Unigroup
TSMC
Unigroup Spreadtrum RDA
United States Census Bureau
Verizon
VIVO
Vodafone
Vodafone Hutchison Australia
Walsin Technology
WIN Semiconductors
Wingtech
Winnebago
Wistron
Xiaomi
Zhen Ding
ZTE
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 Tariffs and Prices of iPhone X in Different Countries
Table 2 Impact of US-China Trade War on Apple's Taiwanese Partners
Table 3 Analysis of EMS Providers' Production Sites
Table 4 Major US Trading Partners in 2017
Table 5 Bans on Huawei Equipment Worldwide
Table 1 Tariffs and Prices of iPhone X in Different Countries
Table 2 Impact of US-China Trade War on Apple's Taiwanese Partners
Table 3 Analysis of EMS Providers' Production Sites
Table 4 Major US Trading Partners in 2017
Table 5 Bans on Huawei Equipment Worldwide
